Buying an apartment in 2027 will not resemble a purchase in 2024 at all. The French real estate market, after two years of decline, has begun a rebound that does not affect all territories in the same way. Prices for older houses have been rising for several quarters, while prices for older apartments remain slightly down at the national level. Understanding this two-speed mechanism allows for better anticipation of decisions.
Geographical fracture of real estate prices in 2027
Talking about a single national trend, whether up or down, is no longer sufficient to describe the French real estate market. Data from the Immobilier Le Figaro barometer in the first quarter of 2026 already shows a clear fracture between rising and declining regions.
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Regions such as PACA, Occitanie, Hauts-de-France, Centre-Val de Loire, Grand Est, and Bourgogne-Franche-Comté are recording increases of over 1% year-on-year starting in 2026. In contrast, Nouvelle-Aquitaine, Pays de la Loire, Auvergne-Rhône-Alpes, Brittany, and Normandy remain in negative territory.
This divergence is likely to intensify in 2027. A buyer who thinks in terms of a “national average” risks missing local opportunities or overpaying for a property in an already overheated area. The real estate price forecast for 2027 on Comment Trouver details these discrepancies city by city, which helps to position their project within the right range.
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Mortgage rates: what changes for borrowers
The rate at which you borrow determines both your budget and the price of the property itself. A one-point reduction in the rate over twenty years represents several tens of thousands of euros in savings on the total cost of the loan.
In 2026, rates for twenty-year loans are in a range around 3% to 3.5%. For 2027, the central scenario anticipates a stabilization in this same zone, barring geopolitical shocks or a reversal in the ECB’s monetary policy.
Why the ECB remains the determining factor
The European Central Bank sets the key interest rate that directly influences the refinancing cost for banks. If inflation remains controlled in the eurozone, the ECB may maintain or slightly lower its rates. In this case, mortgage lending conditions would remain favorable.
If geopolitical tensions or a resurgence of inflation prompt the ECB to raise its key interest rate, borrowers would face a rapid increase in costs. The banks’ room for maneuver directly depends on these decisions.
Houses and apartments: two distinct real estate markets
Why does this distinction matter so much? Because since the end of 2025, older houses and older apartments have not been following the same price trajectory.
- Older houses in metropolitan France are experiencing price increases for the fourth consecutive quarter in the first quarter of 2026, driven by strong demand in suburban and rural areas.
- Older apartments remain slightly down at the national level, with notable exceptions in certain metropolitan areas like Paris, Nice, Lille, and Marseille, which are already showing a growth of nearly 1% in a quarter.
- Medium-sized cities (Brest, Le Mans, Limoges, Périgueux) are seeing a more pronounced rebound than large metropolitan areas, with annual increases reaching 2 to 4% as early as 2026.
For 2027, this divergence between types of properties will structure the market. An investor targeting an apartment in Bordeaux or Rennes, still experiencing quarterly declines in early 2026, does not have the same outlook as a house buyer in Centre-Val de Loire.
End of Pinel and expanded PTZ: two tax deadlines not to miss
Two tax schemes are reaching a turning point in 2027, and their combined effects will redistribute the cards between buyers and investors.
The PTZ in its broadest version
The zero-interest loan, in its current form, is the most generous it has been in years. It expires on December 31, 2027. First-time buyers who wish to benefit from it must initiate their project by the end of 2026 to secure the financial arrangement before the deadline.
Waiting until 2027 to start the process risks completing the file too late. The processing times for banks, searching for the property, and signing at the notary accumulate quickly.
The end of Pinel commitments
In 2027, a wave of properties acquired under the Pinel scheme will reach the end of their tax commitment. Owners who no longer have a tax advantage to keep their property may sell it or reposition it on the traditional rental market.
This phenomenon recalls what happened with the Robien law: an influx of properties in certain micro-markets can create local downward pressure. Medium-sized cities where new construction has been concentrated under Pinel are the most exposed to this saturation risk.
- Check the volume of Pinel programs delivered in the targeted municipality before buying.
- Analyze the local vacancy rate, which indicates a potential excess supply.
- Favor sectors where rental demand is based on solid fundamentals (employment, transport, services) rather than on a temporary tax advantage.
Real estate situation 2027: buy or wait
The answer depends less on the calendar than on the project. In a multi-speed market, the question is not “will prices rise or fall in France” but “what is happening precisely in the city and neighborhood I am targeting.”
Price indices published by notaries and IGEDD show that the national low was reached in the first quarter of 2024. Since then, the curve has been slowly rising, but the disparities between territories have never been so pronounced.
A buyer who has secured financing, a validated PTZ, and an identified property in a moderately recovering area has no reason to wait for a hypothetical further drop. Conversely, in a local market still undergoing correction, a few months of patience can represent real savings. Analyzing the targeted territory remains more reliable than any national average for making this decision.